Historical analog · U.S. jobs report (NFP)
How markets react to the monthly jobs report
Every U.S. Employment Situation (Non-Farm Payrolls) release since 2015 — 141 in total — and what six major markets did over the following 1, 5 and 20 sessions. Pick an asset to see the full breakdown by market backdrop.
S&P 500
20 sessions later (141 events): median +1.16%, range −14.46% to +12.56%, higher 62% of the time.
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Nasdaq
20 sessions later (141 events): median +1.64%, range −13.56% to +15.85%, higher 65% of the time.
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Gold
20 sessions later (141 events): median +0.51%, range −9.69% to +10.93%, higher 56% of the time.
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Oil
20 sessions later (141 events): median +1.23%, range −45.06% to +69.38%, higher 55% of the time.
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U.S. dollar
20 sessions later (141 events): median +0.10%, range −7.45% to +4.70%, higher 51% of the time.
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10Y yield
20 sessions later (141 events): median +1.6 bp, range −91.0 bp to +58.9 bp, higher 53% of the time.
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Today’s news, with what happened the previous times
Historical Analogs puts today’s company news and the next scheduled market events next to how the market reacted the previous times. Past reactions, not a probability.
See Historical Analogs →Other market events
Federal Reserve policy-decision dates and BLS publication dates for CPI and Employment Situation. When BLS blocks access, the first publication of each month's not-seasonally-adjusted CPI and total payrolls (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ALFRED) gives the release date. Each CPI and jobs report counts once, on the day its reference month was first published; later revision dates are dropped. Returns start at the first session open after release and end at the 1st, 5th or 20th session close. Treasury 10Y yield changes are expressed in basis points; other tracked reactions are percent returns. Historical backdrop is a transparent proxy from prior S&P 500 20-session momentum and VIX level; it is not Regimic's archived live regime. Groups below three events withhold statistics. Release surprises and revision magnitudes are not classified. Descriptive association does not establish causality. Data updated 2026-11-02. For information only; not investment advice.