Historical Analogs

Every major market story, with what happened the previous times

Today’s company news and the big scheduled market events, each next to how the stock or the market reacted the previous times something similar happened. Past reactions, not a probability.

Company news

Today’s company news

Each story is compared with earlier events of the same kind at the same company. Company news is checked after the U.S. close and before the open. History updated 02 Nov 2026 · 19:07 UTC.

WMTWalmartEarnings beat02 Nov 2026 · 16:10 UTC

Why Walmart (WMT) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again

Zacks

Why it matters: Quarterly results are measured against analysts’ estimates; the size of the surprise is one of the most closely watched company events.

What happened the previous times

The last 12 times Walmart beat earnings estimates, measured from the next session’s open:

1 session later

Past cases
12
Median move
−1.5%
Range
−3.2% to +3.0%Worst 17 Aug 2023 · best 20 Nov 2025
Times higher
3 of 12 (25%)

Average move −1.0% · vs S&P 500 −0.8% · vs sector (XLP) −1.2%

5 sessions later

Past cases
12
Median move
−0.8%
Range
−4.4% to +5.0%Worst 21 May 2026 · best 20 Nov 2025
Times higher
6 of 12 (50%)

Average move −0.1% · vs S&P 500 −0.8% · vs sector (XLP) −1.2%

The 12 earlier cases, with sources

  1. 20 Aug 2026 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+9.3% surprise)

    1 session −2.4% (vs S&P 500 −1.9%, vs sector (XLP) −2.5%) · 5 sessions −1.9% (vs S&P 500 −1.9%, vs sector (XLP) −3.2%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  2. 21 May 2026 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+0.2% surprise)

    1 session −2.5% (vs S&P 500 −3.0%, vs sector (XLP) −2.6%) · 5 sessions −4.4% (vs S&P 500 −6.6%, vs sector (XLP) −4.3%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  3. 19 Feb 2026 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+1.8% surprise)

    1 session −2.8% (vs S&P 500 −2.9%, vs sector (XLP) −2.5%) · 5 sessions −2.1% (vs S&P 500 −3.5%, vs sector (XLP) −3.3%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  4. 20 Nov 2025 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+3.1% surprise)

    1 session +3.0% (vs S&P 500 +6.1%, vs sector (XLP) +2.6%) · 5 sessions +5.0% (vs S&P 500 +4.0%, vs sector (XLP) +2.1%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  5. 15 May 2025 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+5.6% surprise)

    1 session +2.2% (vs S&P 500 +1.3%, vs sector (XLP) +0.2%) · 5 sessions +2.3% (vs S&P 500 +2.7%, vs sector (XLP) −0.3%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  6. 20 Feb 2025 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+2.0% surprise)

    1 session −1.6% (vs S&P 500 −1.4%, vs sector (XLP) −2.4%) · 5 sessions −2.6% (vs S&P 500 +0.2%, vs sector (XLP) −4.4%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  7. 19 Nov 2024 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+8.8% surprise)

    1 session +0.4% (vs S&P 500 −0.5%, vs sector (XLP) +0.6%) · 5 sessions +3.8% (vs S&P 500 +1.6%, vs sector (XLP) +1.9%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  8. 15 Aug 2024 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+3.8% surprise)

    1 session −1.3% (vs S&P 500 −1.9%, vs sector (XLP) −0.9%) · 5 sessions +1.5% (vs S&P 500 −0.5%, vs sector (XLP) +0.1%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  9. 16 May 2024 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+14.4% surprise)

    1 session −0.3% (vs S&P 500 −0.1%, vs sector (XLP) −0.8%) · 5 sessions +1.6% (vs S&P 500 +1.6%, vs sector (XLP) +1.8%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  10. 20 Feb 2024 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+9.3% surprise)

    1 session −1.5% (vs S&P 500 −1.3%, vs sector (XLP) −1.8%) · 5 sessions +0.2% (vs S&P 500 −1.5%, vs sector (XLP) −0.7%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  11. 16 Nov 2023 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+0.4% surprise)

    1 session −1.7% (vs S&P 500 −1.9%, vs sector (XLP) −1.5%) · 5 sessions −2.6% (vs S&P 500 −3.9%, vs sector (XLP) −3.2%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  12. 17 Aug 2023 · Walmart quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+7.9% surprise)

    1 session −3.2% (vs S&P 500 −2.1%, vs sector (XLP) −2.2%) · 5 sessions −1.7% (vs S&P 500 −2.2%, vs sector (XLP) −0.5%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

Past reactions, not a probability.

All WMT history →
RTXRTXEarnings beat01 Nov 2026 · 20:52 UTC

Earnings Beat Will Impact RTX (RTX) Investors

Simply Wall St

Why it matters: Quarterly results are measured against analysts’ estimates; the size of the surprise is one of the most closely watched company events.

What happened the previous times

The last 12 times RTX beat earnings estimates, measured from the next session’s open:

1 session later

Past cases
12
Median move
+0.6%
Times higher
7 of 12 (58%)

Average move +0.2% · vs S&P 500 0.0% · vs sector (XLI) 0.0%

5 sessions later

Past cases
12
Median move
+1.8%
Times higher
8 of 12 (67%)

Average move +1.9% · vs S&P 500 +0.9% · vs sector (XLI) +1.1%

The 12 earlier cases, with sources

  1. 23 Jul 2026 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+13.7% surprise)

    1 session +2.0% (vs S&P 500 +2.2%, vs sector (XLI) +0.4%) · 5 sessions +5.0% (vs S&P 500 +6.3%, vs sector (XLI) +6.4%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  2. 21 Apr 2026 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+16.9% surprise)

    1 session −3.8% (vs S&P 500 −3.0%, vs sector (XLI) −2.6%) · 5 sessions −10.9% (vs S&P 500 −11.6%, vs sector (XLI) −10.3%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  3. 27 Jan 2026 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+5.3% surprise)

    1 session +0.9% (vs S&P 500 +0.7%, vs sector (XLI) +0.6%) · 5 sessions +0.8% (vs S&P 500 +0.6%, vs sector (XLI) −0.9%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  4. 21 Oct 2025 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+20.6% surprise)

    1 session +0.7% (vs S&P 500 +0.7%, vs sector (XLI) 0.0%) · 5 sessions +4.3% (vs S&P 500 +2.3%, vs sector (XLI) +3.0%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  5. 22 Jul 2025 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+9.5% surprise)

    1 session +2.5% (vs S&P 500 +2.6%, vs sector (XLI) +1.9%) · 5 sessions +7.3% (vs S&P 500 +6.0%, vs sector (XLI) +4.4%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  6. 22 Apr 2025 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+7.5% surprise)

    1 session −0.7% (vs S&P 500 −2.0%, vs sector (XLI) −1.6%) · 5 sessions +9.0% (vs S&P 500 +3.1%, vs sector (XLI) +4.2%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  7. 28 Jan 2025 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+11.8% surprise)

    1 session −2.2% (vs S&P 500 −2.8%, vs sector (XLI) −1.3%) · 5 sessions −1.0% (vs S&P 500 −0.5%, vs sector (XLI) +0.8%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  8. 22 Oct 2024 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+8.3% surprise)

    1 session −1.9% (vs S&P 500 −2.3%, vs sector (XLI) −1.1%) · 5 sessions −2.0% (vs S&P 500 −2.0%, vs sector (XLI) −0.3%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  9. 25 Jul 2024 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+8.6% surprise)

    1 session +2.9% (vs S&P 500 +3.5%, vs sector (XLI) +2.3%) · 5 sessions +6.6% (vs S&P 500 +4.8%, vs sector (XLI) +2.9%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  10. 23 Apr 2024 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+8.6% surprise)

    1 session +0.4% (vs S&P 500 −0.4%, vs sector (XLI) −0.3%) · 5 sessions +1.4% (vs S&P 500 −0.2%, vs sector (XLI) +0.4%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  11. 23 Jan 2024 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+3.5% surprise)

    1 session +1.5% (vs S&P 500 +1.3%, vs sector (XLI) +1.6%) · 5 sessions +2.1% (vs S&P 500 +0.6%, vs sector (XLI) +1.4%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

  12. 24 Oct 2023 · RTX quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+2.6% surprise)

    1 session −0.5% (vs S&P 500 −0.7%, vs sector (XLI) 0.0%) · 5 sessions −0.2% (vs S&P 500 +1.4%, vs sector (XLI) +1.6%)

    Yahoo Finance earnings calendar ↗

Past reactions, not a probability.

All RTX history →

More company news

Not yet compared with history: stories that arrived after the last news check, or that fit no fixed event type (for example analyst rating changes).

Major market events

How markets reacted to the big scheduled events

Fed decisions

  • 90 Fed decisions since 2015.
  • S&P 500 the next session: higher 52% of the time, median move +0.03%.
  • S&P 500 5 sessions later: higher 49% of the time, median move −0.01%.
  • S&P 500 20 sessions later: higher 70% of the time, median move +1.53%.

Stocks, gold, oil, dollar and yields →

CPI reports

  • 141 CPI reports since 2015.
  • S&P 500 the next session: higher 54% of the time, median move +0.03%.
  • S&P 500 5 sessions later: higher 64% of the time, median move +0.51%.
  • S&P 500 20 sessions later: higher 66% of the time, median move +1.37%.

Stocks, gold, oil, dollar and yields →

Jobs reports

  • 141 jobs reports since 2015.
  • S&P 500 the next session: higher 62% of the time, median move +0.14%.
  • S&P 500 5 sessions later: higher 65% of the time, median move +0.66%.
  • S&P 500 20 sessions later: higher 62% of the time, median move +1.16%.

Stocks, gold, oil, dollar and yields →

Past reactions, not a probability. Data updated 02 Nov 2026.

Moves run from the first U.S. session open after each past event to the close 1 or 5 sessions later, also shown against the S&P 500 and the company’s sector ETF over the same sessions. Counts and averages need at least three earlier cases. Past reactions, not a probability. For information only; not investment advice. Methodology