Historical analog · Federal Reserve
How 10Y yield reacts after Fed decisions
What the 10-year Treasury yield did after every Federal Reserve policy decision since 2015 — 90 in total, measured from the first open after the release to the close 1, 5 and 20 sessions later.
Key findings
What history shows
- Over the next session after 90 Fed decisions, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 46% of the time, with a median move of −0.2 bp.
- Over the 5 sessions after 89 Fed decisions, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 54% of the time, with a median move of +1.3 bp.
- Over the 20 sessions after 89 Fed decisions, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 55% of the time, with a median move of +3.2 bp.
- By backdrop, the median 20-session move was +4.0 bp when markets were risk-on beforehand (34 Fed decisions) and +4.2 bp when they were risk-off (23).
Full data
Reaction by horizon and market backdrop
Median move in basis points · range from the worst to the best event · share of events followed by a rise · number of events. “—” means fewer than three events.
| Backdrop | Next session | 5 sessions | 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|
| All events | −0.2 bp −13.4 bp to +16.0 bp 46% up · n=90 | +1.3 bp −37.1 bp to +25.3 bp 54% up · n=89 | +3.2 bp −65.4 bp to +57.9 bp 55% up · n=89 |
| Risk-on backdrop | −0.4 bp −9.1 bp to +14.9 bp 47% up · n=34 | +0.7 bp −18.4 bp to +22.8 bp 53% up · n=34 | +4.0 bp −27.2 bp to +41.4 bp 56% up · n=34 |
| Neutral backdrop | 0.0 bp −13.4 bp to +10.4 bp 42% up · n=33 | 0.0 bp −34.4 bp to +17.9 bp 50% up · n=32 | −1.6 bp −56.2 bp to +43.8 bp 50% up · n=32 |
| Risk-off backdrop | −0.6 bp −13.2 bp to +16.0 bp 48% up · n=23 | +3.6 bp −37.1 bp to +25.3 bp 61% up · n=23 | +4.2 bp −65.4 bp to +57.9 bp 61% up · n=23 |
Today
History is the base rate. Every event is different.
Historical Analogs shows today’s company news and major market events with what happened the previous times — the past reactions, not a forecast.
FAQ
Common questions
Does the 10-year Treasury yield usually rise or fall after a Fed decision?
Across 89 Fed decisions since 2015, the 10-year Treasury yield was higher 20 sessions later 55% of the time, with a median move of +3.2 bp. That is a historical tendency, not a forecast for the next release.
Does the market backdrop beforehand change the reaction?
Often, yes. The table separates Fed decisions by whether markets were risk-on, neutral or risk-off beforehand. The backdrop is a transparent proxy from prior S&P 500 momentum and the VIX level, and groups with fewer than three events are withheld.
How are the moves measured?
Each move starts at the first session open after the release and ends at the close 1, 5 or 20 sessions later. Yield changes are shown in basis points.
When is the next Fed decision?
Scheduled central-bank decisions and U.S. data releases in the next two days are listed on Regimic's Historical Analogs page, next to how markets reacted the previous times.
Fed decisions: other assets
Other market events
Federal Reserve policy-decision dates and BLS publication dates for CPI and Employment Situation. When BLS blocks access, the first publication of each month's not-seasonally-adjusted CPI and total payrolls (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ALFRED) gives the release date. Each CPI and jobs report counts once, on the day its reference month was first published; later revision dates are dropped. Returns start at the first session open after release and end at the 1st, 5th or 20th session close. Treasury 10Y yield changes are expressed in basis points; other tracked reactions are percent returns. Historical backdrop is a transparent proxy from prior S&P 500 20-session momentum and VIX level; it is not Regimic's archived live regime. Groups below three events withhold statistics. Release surprises and revision magnitudes are not classified. Descriptive association does not establish causality. Data updated 2026-11-02. For information only; not investment advice.