Historical analog · U.S. inflation (CPI)
How Oil reacts to CPI inflation reports
What crude oil did after every U.S. Consumer Price Index release since 2015 — 141 in total, measured from the first open after the release to the close 1, 5 and 20 sessions later.
Key findings
What history shows
- Over the next session after 141 CPI reports, crude oil finished higher 59% of the time, with a median move of +0.34%.
- Over the 5 sessions after 141 CPI reports, crude oil finished higher 62% of the time, with a median move of +1.11%.
- Over the 20 sessions after 140 CPI reports, crude oil finished higher 56% of the time, with a median move of +1.40%.
- By backdrop, the median 20-session move was +3.11% when markets were risk-on beforehand (53 CPI reports) and +2.62% when they were risk-off (36).
Full data
Reaction by horizon and market backdrop
Median move in percent · range from the worst to the best event · share of events followed by a rise · number of events. “—” means fewer than three events.
| Backdrop | Next session | 5 sessions | 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|
| All events | +0.34% −8.90% to +6.78% 59% up · n=141 | +1.11% −25.73% to +29.93% 62% up · n=141 | +1.40% −39.09% to +59.00% 56% up · n=140 |
| Risk-on backdrop | +0.36% −5.55% to +5.71% 65% up · n=54 | +1.18% −10.46% to +15.56% 72% up · n=54 | +3.11% −39.09% to +31.37% 55% up · n=53 |
| Neutral backdrop | +0.18% −3.80% to +5.05% 57% up · n=51 | +0.82% −14.93% to +7.41% 61% up · n=51 | +1.23% −19.37% to +56.71% 57% up · n=51 |
| Risk-off backdrop | +0.42% −8.90% to +6.78% 53% up · n=36 | +0.06% −25.73% to +29.93% 50% up · n=36 | +2.62% −31.75% to +59.00% 58% up · n=36 |
Today
History is the base rate. Every event is different.
Historical Analogs shows today’s company news and major market events with what happened the previous times — the past reactions, not a forecast.
FAQ
Common questions
Does crude oil usually rise or fall after a CPI report?
Across 140 CPI reports since 2015, crude oil was higher 20 sessions later 56% of the time, with a median move of +1.40%. That is a historical tendency, not a forecast for the next release.
Does the market backdrop beforehand change the reaction?
Often, yes. The table separates CPI reports by whether markets were risk-on, neutral or risk-off beforehand. The backdrop is a transparent proxy from prior S&P 500 momentum and the VIX level, and groups with fewer than three events are withheld.
How are the moves measured?
Each move starts at the first session open after the release and ends at the close 1, 5 or 20 sessions later. Moves are price-only returns in percent, without dividends or costs.
When is the next CPI report?
Scheduled central-bank decisions and U.S. data releases in the next two days are listed on Regimic's Historical Analogs page, next to how markets reacted the previous times.
CPI reports: other assets
Other market events
Federal Reserve policy-decision dates and BLS publication dates for CPI and Employment Situation. When BLS blocks access, the first publication of each month's not-seasonally-adjusted CPI and total payrolls (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ALFRED) gives the release date. Each CPI and jobs report counts once, on the day its reference month was first published; later revision dates are dropped. Returns start at the first session open after release and end at the 1st, 5th or 20th session close. Treasury 10Y yield changes are expressed in basis points; other tracked reactions are percent returns. Historical backdrop is a transparent proxy from prior S&P 500 20-session momentum and VIX level; it is not Regimic's archived live regime. Groups below three events withhold statistics. Release surprises and revision magnitudes are not classified. Descriptive association does not establish causality. Data updated 2026-11-02. For information only; not investment advice.