Company history · UPS

UPS after earnings, guidance and news: what happened the previous times

Every earnings report, outlook change and other company event Regimic has recorded for UPS since 2023 (14 events), each with how the stock moved 1 and 5 sessions later and what happened the previous times. Past reactions, not a probability.

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In short

The last 12 times UPS beat earnings estimates, the stock was higher 5 sessions later in 3 of them (median move −3.0%, range −7.7% to +5.6%).

Past reactions, not a probability.

Event history

Every event, newest first

“The previous times” are the earlier events of the same type at UPS, at least 60 days before, the latest 12. Counts and medians need at least three of them.

27 Oct 2026Guidance raised

UPS Raises Outlook as Revenue Climbs

The Wall Street Journal

How the stock moved this time

Measured once the 5th session after the news has closed.

What happened the previous times

No earlier event of this type for UPS in the record.

27 Oct 2026Earnings beat

UPS tops estimates as efficiency drive gains momentum

Investing.com

How the stock moved this time

Measured once the 5th session after the news has closed.

What happened the previous times

1 session later

Past cases: 12
Median move: −1.3%
Range: −4.6% to +3.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 4 of 12 (33%)

Average move −0.9% · vs S&P 500 −1.1% · vs sector (XLI) −1.1%

5 sessions later

Past cases: 12
Median move: −3.0%
Range: −7.7% to +5.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 3 of 12 (25%)

Average move −2.2% · vs S&P 500 −3.2% · vs sector (XLI) −3.0%

28 Jul 2026Earnings beatEPS surprise +5.8%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+5.8% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session −2.8% (vs S&P 500 −3.0%, vs sector (XLI) −2.8%) · 5 sessions −1.6% (vs S&P 500 −4.1%, vs sector (XLI) −1.9%)

What happened the previous times

1 session later

Past cases: 11
Median move: −1.2%
Range: −4.6% to +3.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 4 of 11 (36%)

Average move −0.7% · vs S&P 500 −0.9% · vs sector (XLI) −1.0%

5 sessions later

Past cases: 11
Median move: −4.1%
Range: −7.7% to +5.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 3 of 11 (27%)

Average move −2.3% · vs S&P 500 −3.1% · vs sector (XLI) −3.1%

28 Apr 2026Earnings beatEPS surprise +4.8%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+4.8% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session −0.1% (vs S&P 500 0.0%, vs sector (XLI) +0.4%) · 5 sessions −7.4% (vs S&P 500 −8.3%, vs sector (XLI) −7.0%)

What happened the previous times

1 session later

Past cases: 10
Median move: −1.3%
Range: −4.6% to +3.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 4 of 10 (40%)

Average move −0.8% · vs S&P 500 −1.0% · vs sector (XLI) −1.1%

5 sessions later

Past cases: 10
Median move: −3.0%
Range: −7.7% to +5.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 3 of 10 (30%)

Average move −1.8% · vs S&P 500 −2.6% · vs sector (XLI) −2.7%

27 Jan 2026Earnings beatEPS surprise +8.1%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+8.1% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session +0.5% (vs S&P 500 +0.3%, vs sector (XLI) +0.2%) · 5 sessions +3.4% (vs S&P 500 +3.2%, vs sector (XLI) +1.6%)

What happened the previous times

1 session later

Past cases: 9
Median move: −1.4%
Range: −4.6% to +3.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 3 of 9 (33%)

Average move −0.9% · vs S&P 500 −1.2% · vs sector (XLI) −1.3%

5 sessions later

Past cases: 9
Median move: −4.1%
Range: −7.7% to +5.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 2 of 9 (22%)

Average move −2.4% · vs S&P 500 −3.2% · vs sector (XLI) −3.2%

28 Oct 2025Earnings beatEPS surprise +33.9%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+33.9% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session −2.1% (vs S&P 500 −2.1%, vs sector (XLI) −1.3%) · 5 sessions −4.4% (vs S&P 500 −3.9%, vs sector (XLI) −3.5%)

What happened the previous times

1 session later

Past cases: 8
Median move: −1.3%
Range: −4.6% to +3.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 3 of 8 (38%)

Average move −0.7% · vs S&P 500 −1.0% · vs sector (XLI) −1.3%

5 sessions later

Past cases: 8
Median move: −3.0%
Range: −7.7% to +5.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 2 of 8 (25%)

Average move −2.1% · vs S&P 500 −3.1% · vs sector (XLI) −3.2%

29 Apr 2025Earnings beatEPS surprise +7.9%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+7.9% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session +0.8% (vs S&P 500 −0.2%, vs sector (XLI) −0.2%) · 5 sessions −0.5% (vs S&P 500 −3.1%, vs sector (XLI) −4.8%)

What happened the previous times

1 session later

Past cases: 7
Median move: −1.4%
Range: −4.6% to +3.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 2 of 7 (29%)

Average move −1.0% · vs S&P 500 −1.2% · vs sector (XLI) −1.4%

5 sessions later

Past cases: 7
Median move: −4.1%
Range: −7.7% to +5.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 2 of 7 (29%)

Average move −2.3% · vs S&P 500 −3.2% · vs sector (XLI) −3.0%

30 Jan 2025Earnings beatEPS surprise +8.6%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+8.6% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session −2.1% (vs S&P 500 −2.3%, vs sector (XLI) −3.4%) · 5 sessions −4.7% (vs S&P 500 −4.7%, vs sector (XLI) −4.3%)

What happened the previous times

1 session later

Past cases: 6
Median move: −1.3%
Range: −4.6% to +3.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 2 of 6 (33%)

Average move −0.8% · vs S&P 500 −1.0% · vs sector (XLI) −1.1%

5 sessions later

Past cases: 6
Median move: −3.0%
Range: −7.7% to +5.6%Worst 24 Oct 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 2 of 6 (33%)

Average move −1.9% · vs S&P 500 −2.9% · vs sector (XLI) −2.7%

24 Oct 2024Earnings beatEPS surprise +8.4%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+8.4% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session −4.6% (vs S&P 500 −4.5%, vs sector (XLI) −4.0%) · 5 sessions −7.7% (vs S&P 500 −7.7%, vs sector (XLI) −6.9%)

What happened the previous times

1 session later

Past cases: 5
Median move: −1.2%
Range: −3.0% to +3.6%Worst 26 Oct 2023 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 2 of 5 (40%)

Average move 0.0% · vs S&P 500 −0.3% · vs sector (XLI) −0.5%

5 sessions later

Past cases: 5
Median move: −1.9%
Range: −5.3% to +5.6%Worst 30 Jan 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 2 of 5 (40%)

Average move −0.8% · vs S&P 500 −1.9% · vs sector (XLI) −1.9%

23 Apr 2024Earnings beatEPS surprise +6.7%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+6.7% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session +2.0% (vs S&P 500 +1.2%, vs sector (XLI) +1.3%) · 5 sessions +1.8% (vs S&P 500 +0.1%, vs sector (XLI) +0.7%)

What happened the previous times

1 session later

Past cases: 4
Median move: −1.3%
Range: −3.0% to +3.6%Worst 26 Oct 2023 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 1 of 4 (25%)

Average move −0.5% · vs S&P 500 −0.6% · vs sector (XLI) −0.9%

5 sessions later

Past cases: 4
Median move: −3.0%
Range: −5.3% to +5.6%Worst 30 Jan 2024 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 1 of 4 (25%)

Average move −1.4% · vs S&P 500 −2.4% · vs sector (XLI) −2.5%

30 Jan 2024Earnings beatEPS surprise +0.4%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+0.4% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session −1.2% (vs S&P 500 −1.3%, vs sector (XLI) −1.9%) · 5 sessions −5.3% (vs S&P 500 −5.7%, vs sector (XLI) −6.7%)

What happened the previous times

1 session later

Past cases: 3
Median move: −1.4%
Range: −3.0% to +3.6%Worst 26 Oct 2023 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 1 of 3 (33%)

Average move −0.3% · vs S&P 500 −0.4% · vs sector (XLI) −0.6%

5 sessions later

Past cases: 3
Median move: −1.9%
Range: −4.1% to +5.6%Worst 08 Aug 2023 · best 31 Jan 2023
Times higher: 1 of 3 (33%)

Average move −0.1% · vs S&P 500 −1.4% · vs sector (XLI) −1.2%

26 Oct 2023Earnings beatEPS surprise +0.6%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+0.6% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session −3.0% (vs S&P 500 −2.1%, vs sector (XLI) −2.5%) · 5 sessions −1.9% (vs S&P 500 −3.4%, vs sector (XLI) −2.8%)

What happened the previous times

Only 2 earlier events of this type: too few for counts or a median.

08 Aug 2023Earnings beatEPS surprise +1.8%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+1.8% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session −1.4% (vs S&P 500 −1.5%, vs sector (XLI) −1.5%) · 5 sessions −4.1% (vs S&P 500 −4.1%, vs sector (XLI) −4.2%)

What happened the previous times

Only 1 earlier event of this type: too few for counts or a median.

31 Jan 2023Earnings beatEPS surprise +1.0%

UPS quarterly results beat the EPS estimate (+1.0% surprise)

Yahoo Finance earnings calendar

How the stock moved this time

1 session +3.6% (vs S&P 500 +2.3%, vs sector (XLI) +2.2%) · 5 sessions +5.6% (vs S&P 500 +3.4%, vs sector (XLI) +3.5%)

What happened the previous times

No earlier event of this type for UPS in the record.

Today’s news, with what happened the previous times

Historical Analogs puts today’s company news and the next scheduled market events next to how the market reacted the previous times. Past reactions, not a probability.

See Historical Analogs →

FAQ

Common questions

What did UPS stock do after it beat earnings estimates?

The last 12 times, it was higher 5 sessions later in 3 of them, with a median move of −3.0% and a range from −7.7% to +5.6%. That describes past reactions, not a probability.

How are the stock moves measured?

From the first U.S. session open after the news to the close 1 and 5 sessions later, in percent, without dividends or costs. Each move is also shown against the S&P 500 (SPY) and the company’s sector ETF over the same sessions.

Which events are included?

Earnings reports against analysts’ estimates, outlook changes, dividends and buybacks, deals, CEO changes, regulatory decisions, major contracts and new products: company news published on Regimic and verified earlier events. Reports of the same event a few days apart count once; analyst rating changes are not company events.

Does this say what UPS stock will do next time?

No. These are past reactions, not a probability: every event is different, and the next reaction can fall outside the past range.

Every company event Regimic published in Company News or verified (earnings calendar, confirmed sources). Events are only added; a wrong one (another company with the same name, or removed by hand) is never shown, and a measured reaction never changes. Reaction: from the first U.S. session open after the news to the close 1 and 5 sessions later, also against SPY and the company's sector ETF. Previous times: earlier events of the same type at the same company, at least 60 days before, the latest 12; counts, median, range and averages need at least three cases. Reports of the same type at the same company within 7 days (30 days for quarterly results) are one event, dated by the first. Past reactions, not a probability. Data updated 02 Nov 2026. For information only; not investment advice. Methodology