Historical event study

Analog Matching

Each published directional call is checked against comparable scheduled macro events. Select a horizon to see historical market reactions and the matching Track Record score.

Same horizon · Track Record

Building sample

0 tracked calls; none has resolved at 5D yet.

The selector changes both historical analog returns and the resolved-call accuracy for this horizon. Each open call keeps its published validation horizon.

Evidence boundary

How analogs are matched

Updated —

The historical calendar and market-price backfill has not completed yet. No statistics are shown until the source data is available.

Minimum sample: 5 comparable events. Stock-specific calls use the S&P 500 only as a market proxy unless the symbol itself is in the historical price set. News context is not counted as a scored call.

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Historical reaction frequency describes past observations. It is not a probability, causal effect or investment recommendation.